ENROLLMENT DOWN: Saline Area Schools Eyes Staff Attrition As Student Population Falls by 280 in 2 Years

Enrollment, already trending down over a number of years, plummeted by 280 students in Saline Area Schools over the last two years.

School officials have already begun talking about ways to adjust staffing models to meet the needs and financial limitations of a smaller school population. Superintendent Steve Laatsch said a smaller school district will likely mean a smaller staff - but he said the district should be able to avoid layoffs by using attrition (not replacing teachers as they retire or leave the district.)

The district’s enrollment fell by 179 students in 2020-21 and 101 in 2021-22, according to a report shared to the Board of Education by Maria Owsley, Assistant Superintendent for Finance for Saline Area Schools.

The district’s general operations are mostly funded by the state on a per-pupil basis. Saline receives $8,700 per student. The decrease would have meant a loss of nearly $2.5 million last year were it not for special mechanisms put in place by the state as part of the COVID-19 response.

Projecting forward, the district expects to see another drop of 137 students for 2022-23, rolling current numbers forward, although that number can be impacted schools of choice and other factors.

The district continues to see smaller populations in the younger grades and higher populations in the high school grades - although this year’s kindergarten class is the largest since 2016-17.

The middle school has been hit hard, losing 58 students in 2020-21 and 60 students in 2021-22. The population at the school has fallen from 1,226 in 17-18 to 1,095 this year. It’s projected to fall to 1,069 next year.

The high school population was unchanged in 2020-21 but fell by 63 in 2021-22. Next year the population is expected to fall by 51 to 1,618.

While many in the community have pointed to controversial cultural issues or the COVID-19 response as reasons for declining enrollment, Superintendent Steve Laatsch said the enrollment decline is part of an established trend of lower birth rates.

“We’ve been talking a lot about how we’ve had incoming classes of 350ish and exiting senior classes at 450 or greater. Eventually, that catches up and now we’re at the point where we are moving through all of that,” Laatsch said.

Laatsch speculated about other reasons for the enrollment decline. He said some parents have chosen homeschooling, private schools or other school districts.

“But the big one is the declining birth rates. We’ve been getting these declining class sizes for a while,” Laatsch said.

Laatsch referred to the sixth and ninth-grade capture rate. These transition years, into middle and high school, have traditionally been years the school district sees more new students.

“It’s still happening, but not at the level it once was. We used to get a greater boom at sixth and ninth grade,” Laatsch said.

Laatsch the district has been preparing for lower enrollment numbers.

“People say the district is losing population and this will impact the bottom line financially. This is true if we don’t make adjustments,” Laatsch said. “But we’re prepared to make those adjustments.”

Laatsch said the district will use targeted attrition of staff.

“If we recognize there are 100 fewer students at the high school, then as teachers exit the organization, we wouldn’t replace those teachers,” Laatsch said. “We feel like we have a sound strategy. We’re not going to be laying off teachers.”

In addition, increases in state funding last year and expected this year can help ease the financial pressure. The district can also dip into federal ESSER funds to maintain the quality of service.

“We have time to continue to adjust our model without impacting our services and we’re very confident we’ll be able to do that,” Laatsch said.

Trustee Susan Estep asked if other districts were seeing the same declines. Laatsch said the trend is common.

“My conversations with other superintendents around the county do suggest that enrollment loss, especially over the last two years, has been pretty significant,” Laatsch said.

Assistant Superintendent for Finance Miranda Owsley said this trend is common across the state and attributes the trend to lower birth rates and families moving out of the state.

Another factor in the enrollment question is schools of choice - importing students from other districts. The district currently has a policy limiting schools of choice students to 10 percent of the overall population. Board President Jennifer Steben asked if the district could market the district to increase schools of choice - especially to students entering sixth or ninth grade. In the past, she noted, the district aimed at netting younger students through schools of choice.

Laatsch said the district would discuss schools of choice at the next meeting.

Trustee Jenny Miller asked about the district’s ability to maintain great programing with less staff.

Laatsch said Miller asked a good question.

“If you don’t have as many teachers, you are likely to not have as many options (course offerings). That is something that will have to be talked about,” Laatsch said.

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